Swiss pharmaceutical company Actelion Ltd (ATLN.EB) will release details of a new experimental heart drug this month that most analysts say could be either a successor to its flagship drug Tracleer, or a new niche treatment.
Actelion has been tightlipped so far on the compound, dubbed Actelion-1, and has not revealed which specific disease the drug is aimed at. But in a survey of 10 analysts by an agency, five said Actelion-1 would probably be a specialty cardiovascular drug, while two thought it would likely be a follow-up to Tracleer. Three were undecided. Two of the analysts said they thought the compound could also be a diabetes-related drug.
Actelion is heavily dependent on revenue from Tracleer right now, and industry experts say a positive announcement regarding either an improved Tracleer follow-up or a wholly new drug could substantially boost the stock.
"It's either an improved follow-up to Tracleer or an innovative compound in the cardiovascular specialty area," said Birgit Kulhoff, an analyst at Rahn & Bodmer.
Actelion spokesman Roland Haefeli would only say, "We do expect to make a disclosure on Actelion-1 before the end of the year...it's a compound evaluated for cardiovascular diseases in Phase II testing."
Tracleer is used to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension, or PAH. The condition is rare but often fatal and causes arteries in the lungs to become narrow or blocked and blood pressure to rise.
Actelion derived around 95% of the CHF247.2 million (US$206.4 million) in sales it posted during the third quarter from the drug, which was the only available treatment for PAH when it was launched in 2001, though competition is now waiting in the wings.
Encysive Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s (ENCY) Thelin is expected to soon receive final U.S. approval, while Myogen Inc. (MYOG) - recently bought by Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) - is expected to file its ambrisentan drug soon.
Given Actelion's current dependence on Tracleer, some analysts said investors could respond more positively if Actelion-1 turns out to be a new specialty cardiovascular drug rather than a new version of Tracleer.
At 1310 GMT Friday, Actelion's shares were up 1.4% at CHF223 in a lower Swiss market.
"Positive results from (a trial on Actelion-1 and another trial on Tracleer) would...likely cause us to boost our target price, perhaps substantially," said Denise Anderson, an analyst at Kepler Equities who has a buy rating on the stock with a CHF255 target price.
Negative results would leave her estimates unchanged, and any dip in the share price would also be a good entry point, she added.
Of those pharmaceutical analysts expecting a Tracleer follow-up, one said it could be a more targeted compound and could therefore potentially be more effective or have a smaller risk of side effects.
"It's likely to be a follow-on compound to Tracleer," he said. "In order to make the secrecy around Actelion-1 economically sensible, the only thing I can come up with is that it's a selective endothelin antagonist."
An endothelin receptor antagonist works by blocking endothelin receptors, with which endothelin - responsible for constricting blood vessels and raising blood pressure - connects in order to be activated.
However, most analysts say they don't expect an updated version of Tracleer and note it's hard to predict with so little information available which heart conditions a cardiovascular drug might target.
"It's not going to be a hypertension drug as Actelion says it plans to market the drug themselves" and marketing a hypertension drug would involve collaboration with another company due to the higher costs involved, said Anderson at Kepler Equities. "And the number of cardiovascular indications that it could be, is huge," she added.
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